Stock-Market Articles

Penny Stock Strategies

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 522)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

Why should the rich guys have all the fun? The small investor can seek out huge returns too...if they know how.

Technical analysis that uses statistics for forecasting price fluctuations is one approach. However, because it is difficult to track changes in fractions of a penny, there simply isn't enough data to be able to analyze. Therefore, you have to keep an ear to the ground when you trade penny stocks.

One of the biggest forces that drive penny stock prices is hype. Whether it's online in discussion forums or chats, or offline with publicity and press, hype can cause swings in penny stock prices.

Are you looking to trade penny stocks to earn a good return on your money? Penny stocks can be profitable for some, but it can also be a money-losing experience.

What should you watch for when you trade penny stocks?

What are some strategies that professionals and amateurs use when dabbling in the penny stock trade?

One technique that some experts who trade penny stocks implement is to focus on a particular stock. Get to know the stock inside and out; that is, get to know the company behind the stock, any news about that company, and anything else that might affect the stock price. Target one stock, listen to the buzz, and see how the stock responds. The louder the buzz gets, the larger the potential for a big price swing.

Many people who trade penny stocks are small-time investors who don't have more than $1,000 of investment capital. These people trade penny stocks because it gives them more shares for the money.

Where they might be able to buy dozens of shares in a major exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange, they can buy hundreds when they trade penny stocks. The potential for loss is big, however. It's almost closer to gambling than investing. The money used is strictly risk capital. Once the money is gone, it's gone.

Another subset of people that trade penny stocks are amateur investors who use the buy and hold strategy. They purchase a stock and retain it for long periods of time, hoping that the stock skyrockets at some point in the future.

Unfortunately, this strategy hardly ever pays off in the way that the investor had hoped. In the long-term, the stock could end up being completely worthless.

Trading penny stocks can be a profitable, and even fun way to invest. It certainly isn't a traditional method of investing, and is unlike old standbys such as bonds and mutual funds. However, trading penny stocks isn't for all people.

You should have a high tolerance for risk, a willingness to analyze every minutiae of your penny stock, and some intestinal fortitude. Have fun with penny stock trading, but don't expect to stumble into the next WalMart for pennies on the dollar.

And remember, as with anything else in life with high potential for gain there is also high potential for loss. Do your homework, follow your rules, and plan to prosper.

In Value Stock Investing Quality Is Job One

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 1085)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

How much financial bloodshed is necessary before we realize that there is no safe and easy shortcut to investment success? When do we learn that most of our mistakes involve greed, fear, or unrealistic expectations about what we own? Eventually, successful investors begin to allocate assets in a goal directed manner by adopting a realistic Investment Strategy... an ongoing security selection and monitoring process that is guided by realistic expectations, selection rules, and management guidelines. If you are thinking of trying a strategy for a year to see if it works, you're due for another smack up alongside the head! Viable Investment Strategies transcend cycles, not years, and viable Equity Investment Strategies consider three disciplined activities, the first of which is Selection. Most familiar strategies ignore one of the others.

How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy them? Will Rogers summed it up: "Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't buy them." Many have misread this tongue-in-cheek observation and joined the "Buy (anything) High" club. I've found that the "Buy Value Stocks Low (er)" approach works better. A Google search produces a variety of criteria that help to identify Value Stocks, the standards being low Price to Book Value, low P/E ratios, and other "fundamentals". But you would be surprised how the definitions can vary, and how few include the word "Quality". In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known Value Fund Manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he said that they didn't qualify as Value Stocks, he was told to change his definition... or else.

How do we create a confidence building Stock Selection Universe? Simply operating on blind faith with one of the common definitions may be too simplistic, particularly since many of the numbers originate from the subject companies. Also, some of the figures may be difficult to obtain quickly, and it is essential not to get bogged down in endless research. Here are five filters you can use to come up with a selection universe of higher quality companies, and you can obtain all of the data inexpensively from the same source:

1.An S & P Rating of B+ or Better. Standard & Poor's is a major financial data provider to the investment community, and its "Earnings and Dividend Rankings for Common Stocks" combine many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the rated companies. Potential market performance (a guessing game anyway) is not a consideration. B+ and above ratings are considered Investment Grade. Anything rated lower adds an element of unnecessary speculation to your portfolio. A staff of thousands does your research for you.

2.A History of Profitability. Although it should seem obvious, buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable operations is less risky than acquiring shares in an unproven, or start-up entity. Profitable operations adapt more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth opportunities. They are more likely to produce profit opportunities for you quickly.

3.A History of Regular Dividend Payments. The payment of regular dividends, and periodic increases in rate paid, are sure signs of economic viability. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend. There is no need to focus on the size of the dividend itself; Equities should not be purchased as income producers. A further benefit of using dividend payment as one of your selection criteria is the clear indication of financial stress that a cut communicates.

4.A Reasonable Price Range. You will find that most Investment Grade stocks are priced above $10 per share and that only a few trade at levels above $100. If you have a seven-figure portfolio, price may not matter from a diversification standpoint, but in smaller portfolios, a round lot of a $50 stock may be too much to risk in one position. An unusually high price may be caused by an unusually high degree of sector or company specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be a good warning signal. With no real structural size limitations, I feel comfortable with a range between $10 and $90 per share... but I would avoid most issues at the higher level.

5.A NYSE Listed Security. I'm not sure that the listing requirements for the NYSE are still more restrictive than elsewhere, but it is helpful to be able to focus on just one set of statistics since most of the information you need regularly is reported by Exchange (Market Stats, Issue Breadth, and New Highs vs. New Lows).

Your Selection Universe will become the backbone of your Equity Investment Program, so there is no room for creative adjustments to the rules and guidelines you've established... no matter how strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. Now you can focus on operating procedures that will help you diversify properly by position size, industry, etc., and on guidelines that will help you identify which stocks should be watched closely for purchase when the price is right. Keeping in mind that you want to sell each Equity Position at a target profit ASAP, you'll want to establish appropriate buying (and selling) rules. For example, I never consider buying a stock until it has fallen at least 20% from its highest level of the past 52 weeks, so I include those that are close or at this price level on a "Daily Watch List". Then, I select those that I would be willing to add to equity portfolios if they fall a bit more during the trading day. Your actual "Buy List" changes every day in both symbol and limit price.

You will need to apply consistent and disciplined judgment to your final selection process, but you can be confidant that you are choosing from a select group of higher quality, well-established companies, with a proven track record of profitability and owner awareness. Additionally, as these companies gyrate above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock market and not an imminent financial disaster... and that should help you sleep nights.

By the way, never say no to a profit when the upward movement equals 10%, and you'll be able to do it again, and again, and again.

Day Trading Online In The Uk

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 354)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

It is one of the strongest currencies in the world, but the whole economy is not as powerful. It fluctuates up and down, along with trends in privately and publicly-owned companies. England's economy has experienced some very high points, but has also experienced some low points as well.

No matter where you live, you must carefully consider your options before you try to earn a return on your investment; and England is no exception to that rule. But some people in the UK still like to take a risk with their money and one of these risks is day trading online.

Day trading online involves the process of buying and selling shares over the Internet at short notice. Day trading online has been seen by many as a way to get rich quick, but that isn't the half of it. Statistics show that online day traders are having a rough ride, with 70% of online day traders losing money. So if you are looking at getting into the world of online day trading, then you should know the risks that are attached to the service.

But when you are in the world of online day trading then you will get some excellent services given to you. One of these services is a chat room, where you can talk to other buyers and sellers. This is a good way to find out what the next big time company might be, but you have to know if this person is "share ramping," which is the process of talking up the shares artificially. So you have to take the risk of guessing if this person is correct or not and if the information hasn't been authorized.

These days, online trading websites are somewhat risky and can be dangerous. But if you are a professional when it comes to buying and selling shares, then you will know all about the risks and you can make yourself a tidy profit. Day trading online should not be used by beginners, but more used by people that are heavily experienced in the stock market world.

The Myth Of The Earnings Yield

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 1263)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

In American novels, well into the 1950's, one finds protagonists using the future stream of dividends emanating from their share holdings to send their kids to college or as collateral. Yet, dividends seemed to have gone the way of the Hula-Hoop. Few companies distribute erratic and ever-declining dividends. The vast majority don't bother. The unfavorable tax treatment of distributed profits may have been the cause.

The dwindling of dividends has implications which are nothing short of revolutionary. Most of the financial theories we use to determine the value of shares were developed in the 1950's and 1960's, when dividends were in vogue. They invariably relied on a few implicit and explicit assumptions:

That the fair "value" of a share is closely correlated to its market price;

That price movements are mostly random, though somehow related to the aforementioned "value" of the share. In other words, the price of a security is supposed to converge with its fair "value" in the long term;

That the fair value responds to new information about the firm and reflects it - though how efficiently is debatable. The strong efficiency market hypothesis assumes that new information is fully incorporated in prices instantaneously.

But how is the fair value to be determined?

A discount rate is applied to the stream of all future income from the share - i.e., its dividends. What should this rate be is sometimes hotly disputed - but usually it is the coupon of "riskless" securities, such as treasury bonds. But since few companies distribute dividends - theoreticians and analysts are increasingly forced to deal with "expected" dividends rather than "paid out" or actual ones.

The best proxy for expected dividends is net earnings. The higher the earnings - the likelier and the higher the dividends. Thus, in a subtle cognitive dissonance, retained earnings - often plundered by rapacious managers - came to be regarded as some kind of deferred dividends.

The rationale is that retained earnings, once re-invested, generate additional earnings. Such a virtuous cycle increases the likelihood and size of future dividends. Even undistributed earnings, goes the refrain, provide a rate of return, or a yield - known as the earnings yield. The original meaning of the word "yield" - income realized by an investor - was undermined by this Newspeak.

Why was this oxymoron - the "earnings yield" - perpetuated?

According to all current theories of finance, in the absence of dividends - shares are worthless. The value of an investor's holdings is determined by the income he stands to receive from them. No income - no value. Of course, an investor can always sell his holdings to other investors and realize capital gains (or losses). But capital gains - though also driven by earnings hype - do not feature in financial models of stock valuation.

Faced with a dearth of dividends, market participants - and especially Wall Street firms - could obviously not live with the ensuing zero valuation of securities. They resorted to substituting future dividends - the outcome of capital accumulation and re-investment - for present ones. The myth was born.

Thus, financial market theories starkly contrast with market realities.

No one buys shares because he expects to collect an uninterrupted and equiponderant stream of future income in the form of dividends. Even the most gullible novice knows that dividends are a mere apologue, a relic of the past. So why do investors buy shares? Because they hope to sell them to other investors later at a higher price.

While past investors looked to dividends to realize income from their shareholdings - present investors are more into capital gains. The market price of a share reflects its discounted expected capital gains, the discount rate being its volatility. It has little to do with its discounted future stream of dividends, as current financial theories teach us.

But, if so, why the volatility in share prices, i.e., why are share prices distributed? Surely, since, in liquid markets, there are always buyers - the price should stabilize around an equilibrium point.

It would seem that share prices incorporate expectations regarding the availability of willing and able buyers, i.e., of investors with sufficient liquidity. Such expectations are influenced by the price level - it is more difficult to find buyers at higher prices - by the general market sentiment, and by externalities and new information, including new information about earnings.

The capital gain anticipated by a rational investor takes into consideration both the expected discounted earnings of the firm and market volatility - the latter being a measure of the expected distribution of willing and able buyers at any given price. Still, if earnings are retained and not transmitted to the investor as dividends - why should they affect the price of the share, i.e., why should they alter the capital gain?

Earnings serve merely as a yardstick, a calibrator, a benchmark figure. Capital gains are, by definition, an increase in the market price of a security. Such an increase is more often than not correlated with the future stream of income to the firm - though not necessarily to the shareholder. Correlation does not always imply causation. Stronger earnings may not be the cause of the increase in the share price and the resulting capital gain. But whatever the relationship, there is no doubt that earnings are a good proxy to capital gains.

Hence investors' obsession with earnings figures. Higher earnings rarely translate into higher dividends. But earnings - if not fiddled - are an excellent predictor of the future value of the firm and, thus, of expected capital gains. Higher earnings and a higher market valuation of the firm make investors more willing to purchase the stock at a higher price - i.e., to pay a premium which translates into capital gains.

The fundamental determinant of future income from share holding was replaced by the expected value of share-ownership. It is a shift from an efficient market - where all new information is instantaneously available to all rational investors and is immediately incorporated in the price of the share - to an inefficient market where the most critical information is elusive: how many investors are willing and able to buy the share at a given price at a given moment.

A market driven by streams of income from holding securities is "open". It reacts efficiently to new information. But it is also "closed" because it is a zero sum game. One investor's gain is another's loss. The distribution of gains and losses in the long term is pretty even, i.e., random. The price level revolves around an anchor, supposedly the fair value.

A market driven by expected capital gains is also "open" in a way because, much like less reputable pyramid schemes, it depends on new capital and new investors. As long as new money keeps pouring in, capital gains expectations are maintained - though not necessarily realized.

But the amount of new money is finite and, in this sense, this kind of market is essentially a "closed" one. When sources of funding are exhausted, the bubble bursts and prices decline precipitously. This is commonly described as an "asset bubble".

This is why current investment portfolio models (like CAPM) are unlikely to work. Both shares and markets move in tandem (contagion) because they are exclusively swayed by the availability of future buyers at given prices. This renders diversification inefficacious. As long as considerations of "expected liquidity" do not constitute an explicit part of income-based models, the market will render them increasingly irrelevant.

Fair Value Of A Common Stock

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 964)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

A lot of discussions have been devoted towards finding fair value of an investment. The goal of every investors is to find undervalued investment and sell it when it reaches fair value. Admittedly, this is the hardest part of investing. So, what is fair value? Fair value is a point where the price of an investment reflect its earning power.

Fair value is relative and it depends on other factors beyond the investors' control. In here, we will discuss on calculating fair value within our own boundary of control. In short, calculating fair value of an investment depends on the rate of return expected and the risk taken to achieve that return. Higher risk needs higher reward. It is quite simple.

So, what asset constitute lower risk investments? We can only compare. First thing that comes out of my mind is Certificate of Deposit (CD). You are guaranteed certain return (interest rate), if you can hold for a certain pre-determined time frame. You would never lose your principal at the end of the time frame.

The next low risk investment is Treasury Bond. This is the bond issued by the United States government, which is deemed to be safest in the world. There are certain risks associated with the small fluctuation in the bond price. However, if you held the bond until maturity, you are guaranteed certain rate of return. Your rate of return depends to certain extent on the price that you bought the bond at.

The next higher risk investment is buying common stock. This is what we are going to focus more here. It is considered higher risk than the two types of investments mentioned previously because you have a higher chance of losing money on your investments. Earlier, we established that higher risk needs higher reward. Therefore, stock investing requires a higher reward.

So, what does this have anything to do with fair value? Quite simply, the price of a common stock that we buy must gives us a higher annual return than bonds or CD. For example if a CD gives you a 3% return, treasury bonds give you a 4% return, then you would want your stock gives you a higher return of perhaps 6%.

What does it means for a stock to give investor a return of 6%? It never really say it, doesn't it? You are partly right. While it is not explicitly shown, you can do a little digging and find out how much the return of your stock investment would be. For example, if your Certificate of Deposit (CD) gives you a 2% annual return, for $ 100 of investment, you would earn $ 2 every year. Let's assume that you want your stock to give you a return of 6%, which is higher than CD or treasury bond. This implies for every $ 100 invested in common stock, it needs to give us a return of $ 6 annually.

Where can we get this information? You can get it on Yahoo! Finance or other financial publications. All we need to do is find the share price of a common stock and the profit per share (also known as earning per share) of that particular stock. Let's use an example to illustrate my point. Magna International Inc. (MGA) is expected to post a profit of $ 6.95 per share for fiscal year 2005. Recently, the share is trading at $ 73.00. The annual return of buying Magna stock is therefore $6.95 divided by its share price $ 73.00. This gives us a return of 9.5%.

Will Magna continue to give investors a 9.5 % return year after year? It depends. If the stock price rises, Magna will return less than 9.5 % annually. What else? Well, Magna might not constantly produce the same amount of profit year after year. It might even produce a loss! So, you see, stock investing is inherently risky because there are two moving part in the equation. Price of the common stock and the profits produced by the company itself. That is the reason why investor need to aim for higher return when choosing their stock investment.

All right. So, let's move on to the crucial thing in investing in common stock. What is the fair value of Magna stock assuming a constant profit of $ 6.95 per share? Personally, I assign fair value of a common stock to be at least 2% above the rate of Treasury bond. Please note that I am using the 10 year bond here. Recently, treasury bond can give us a 4 % return. Therefore, the fair value of Magna common stock is when it can give me a return of 6%

So, what is the fair value of Magna common stock in this case? For a profit of $ 6.95 per share, the fair value of Magna common stock is $115.80 per share. That's right. At $ 115.80 per share, Magna common stock will return investors 6% annually. Having said that, we should never buy a common stock at fair value. Why? Because our investing purpose is to make money. If we buy stocks at fair value, then when do we profit from it? Do we expect to sell it when it is overvalued? Sure, it would be nice if we can do that all the time. But to be conservative, let's not bank on our stocks reaching overvalued level.

There you go. I have explained how to calculate fair value in a common stock. Of course, the $ 6.95 per share profit figure is the expectation of profit compiled by Yahoo! Finance. It is not in any way an endorsement to buy Magna common stock. You should do your own calculation to verify that number.

Could Spot Uranium Prices Reach 100 Pound

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 1559)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

Energy Guru Bill Powers Forecasts Uranium Shortfall in Three Years. Bill Powers focuses on investment opportunities in the Canadian energy sector, mainly independent oil & gas companies and now uranium companies. We talked with him and he thinks uranium could reach $100/pound this decade.

Interviewer: A lot of newsletters cover oil and gas, but you picked uranium, which hardly anyone was covering until recently?

Bill Powers: I feel the uranium market right now is the world's most unbalanced commodity market. In a sense, the world, through the nuclear power industry, consumes approximately 172 million pounds of uranium per year, and the world only produces about 92 million pounds of uranium per year. The supply deficit is made up through above-ground inventories, which are being worked down pretty quickly. Those numbers were supplied by Uranium Information Center. A lot of my information comes from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. For example, I discovered from them that the U.S. produced, through the 1980s, about 43.7 million pounds of uranium. And by 2002, the U.S. only produced about 2.34 million pounds of uranium.

Interviewer: Where is uranium being produced in the United States?

Bill Powers: Wyoming. There is also a uranium facility in Nebraska. I think there are two in-situ leach plants in Wyoming and another one in Nebraska. There are a couple of phosphate farmers in Florida who produce uranium. I believe there is a facility in Texas that also produces uranium. For the most part, the uranium industry in New Mexico has just about been wiped out. The very low prices that we've seen, for about twenty years, have pretty much wiped out the entire U.S. uranium industry. To go from over 43 million pounds to less than 2.5 million pounds, it has really only allowed the most productive, highest margin and most efficient mines in the country to continue operating in that environment.

Interviewer: So that makes the U.S. a net importer of uranium?

Bill Powers: Absolutely. According to the DOE, US imports have gone from 3.6 million pounds per year in 1980 to 52.7 million pounds per year in 2002. A lot of it comes from Canada, but a significant amount is coming from the Russians, through a program called HEU (highly enriched uranium): the megatons to megawatts program. It's where the United States Enrichment Corporation, as well as its partner in Russia, took highly enriched uranium and broke it down into lower grade uranium that could be marketed to nuclear power companies throughout North America and around the world. This has been one of the reasons we've had lower prices. All of this uranium has cluttered the market the past few years. And the US Enrichment Corporation has a lot to do with why we've seen low uranium prices here in the States. I had a conversation with them about the fact that since 1998, when they became a public company (after being a company that was owned by the U.S. government), their long-term inventories of uranium had declined. When they became a private corporation, the U.S. government gave them 7,000 tons of enriched uranium and 50 tons of highly enriched uranium. They have been selling about 6 million pounds of uranium into the marketplace every year since 1998. According to my conversation with them, they have about three to four more years of selling. It's because the US Enrichment Corporation wants to get out of the uranium storage business, and they want to be in the processing business.

Interviewer: How long will it be, do you think, before USEC is going to stop being a factor on the selling price pressure of uranium?

Bill Powers: I would probably say in about three years. For the uranium they are now selling, the cost of the uranium to them was zero. This has really made that company look very profitable. They are selling about $100 million worth of uranium every year, and they intend to do this at no matter what price. This is an extremely bullish scenario right now because uranium prices have touched twenty-year highs, despite the fact that USEC is dumping more than three percent of the world's uranium consumption onto the market place. When this dries up, we should see markedly higher uranium prices.

Interviewer: How high is high when you say that?

Bill Powers: I would say up to $100 per pound. Before the end of this decade, uranium will probably be $100/pound. The Russians are going to be holding back some of their output from the megatons to megawatts project. Their (the Russian) uranium is going to be needed for internal consumption. Russia has a growing nuclear power industry. They need to have uranium supplies available. They're not going to be selling as much as they had in previous years. It appears it is going to be very important to factor in reduced Russian supplies as well as when USEC gets out of the business.

Interviewer: How can a sophisticated investor benefit from uranium's rising price?

Bill Powers: The most leveraged investments are the Canadian juniors. I believe Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) has other businesses out of uranium exploration and production, and it is a very safe way to play uranium. But I think there are far better opportunities out there. One of my favorite companies is Strathmore Minerals (TSX-V: STM). I really like their business model of acquiring a great deal of very prospective uranium properties at bargain basement prices. They're able to do this because, right now, uranium has gone through a twenty-year depression. The prices for some of these pretty far advanced projects are very cheap. I think they are well leveraged for that. Another safe way to play uranium is Denison Mines (TSX: DEN). They produce about 1.3 million pounds per year. They have properties are in McLean Lake, Saskatchewan, which is part of the Athabasca Basin. What I like about them is they are able to use their cash flow from their existing production to further expand some of their properties. With UEX Corporation (TSX: UEX), Cameco was the shareholder. UEX was founded several years ago with Pioneer Minerals. Both of the companies put in properties. It's look like they are rapidly advancing some of their properties in Athabasca. I believe they have about eleven properties they have an interest in.

Interviewer: What about other energy factors, such as crude oil, and what do you see happening there?

Bill Powers: I would say crude oil is heading much higher. We have reached the worldwide production peak of crude oil, or we are very close to it. This is not very well recognized. As demand continues to rise, and world production starts a downward slope, we're heading for much higher crude oil prices. I see much higher prices later this decade, if nothing goes wrong. What I mean by that is the natural market equilibrium price of crude oil should be $50 within the next eighteen months. And probably over $100 by the end of this decade if nothing goes dramatically wrong. That would come from the natural decline of existing reservoirs, limited new discoveries, and increasing demand. However, if a country, such as Saudi Arabia, were to have a regime change...

Interviewer: Are you looking for a regime change in Saudi Arabia?

Bill Powers: Yes, there is a body of evidence that supports this. Terrorist incidents are becoming more violent and closer together in Saudi Arabia. Right now, we're seeing those attacks targeted to the oil workers. I believe it will not be too long before those attacks are focused more on the royal family. I believe that will be the next stage in Saudi Arabia. There's a very good chance, which history supports, is when there are sudden regime changes in oil-exporting countries, oil exports from those countries drop significantly. Regardless of what were to happen, as far as the political situation, a lot of their fields, especially Ghawar, which is the biggest oilfield in the world - it produces between 4 and 4.5 million barrels per day - there is evidence that this field could decline relatively soon. Saudi-Aramco has been injecting substantial amounts of water into injection wells to push the keep production flat What this has done is it keeps production flat, but it's sort of an illusionary fountain of youth. If you keep injecting water, the amount of water you produce, along with the oil, continues to rise. As the water cut continues to increase, the amount of oil produced can fall dramatically. If that were to happen, if Ghawar were to go into a permanent and irreversible decline - well, it could happen relatively quickly. There are other fields in the Middle East, such as Yibal in Oman, where they had a lot of water flooding and horizontal well drilling. Yibal has gone from 250,000 barrels per day in the late 1990s to about 80,000 barrels per day now. If we were to get that type of decline in Ghawar, the world is going to be seeing higher prices just on that. Right now, there is not any excess oil production supply anywhere in the world. A relatively small reduction in availability of supply will lead to an exponentially higher oil price.

Will Lightning Strike A Third Time For Dr Boen Tan

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 323)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

A Renowned Exploration Geologist Is Pursuing Another Major Uranium Deposit in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin

In late January, Cameco Corp's director of advanced exploration tantalized the audience at Vancouver's Minerals Exploration Roundup, discussing the geology, and especially the size, of his company's Millennium uranium deposit. Drill indicated resources are estimated at 449,000 tonnes with a grade of 4.63 percent uranium oxide. Additional tonnage is inferred at the lesser grade of 1.81 percent, but still a respectable grade by anyone's calculations (one percent of uranium oxide is reportedly comparable to about 50 grams of gold). Because of soaring spot uranium prices, this deposit's gross value might someday conceivably exceed $2.4 billion.

"The geological setting of the Key Lake Road shear zone is quite similar to the Millennium deposit," Dr. Boen Tan told StockInterview. "The Key Lake Road shear zone is located within the same north-northeastern structural trend as the Millennium deposit." Cameco's (NYSE: CCJ) director of advanced exploration, Charles Roy, called the Millennium uranium deposit, "the most significant new basement discovery in more than 30 years." News reports suggest the Millennium discovery could host a resource of 57 million pounds of uranium oxide. The Millennium deposit is located north of the former world-class Key Lake uranium mine and south of two of the world's highest grade uranium deposits, McArthur River and Cigar Lake.

So why is Dr. Tan evaluating a relatively early stage exploration project against one of the world's most recent and highly lucrative uranium discoveries? Most junior companies exploring in Canada's Athabasca Basin, or for that matter any junior natural resource company, are unduly sanguine about measuring their property's exploration prospects in relation to a major, often recently discovered, world-class deposit. All too frequently such "closeology" ("we're close to the big deposit so we can find an elephant, too) comparisons are deceptive and misleading. In many investment circles, it has become a clich

Short Term Vs Long Term Stock Investment

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 515)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

There are many persons that run towards stock investment as a means to make some quick money. This is perhaps however not the best investment option for persons with short term rewards in mind. The best option when thinking of investing in stocks is if you are interested in accumulating funds over a long period of time. One such example is the investment for future needs such as a nest egg for retirement and so on.

In stock investment both short term and long term investments come with risks attached and therefore nothing is truly guaranteed in the stock market. Today could be very good and tomorrow very bad resulting in great gains or great losses as the case may be. However, in terms of long term investment, it is shown according to statistics that there are no 20 year portfolios that have lost on the stock market. The average returns have averaged about 10 percent and these accounts all have a broadly diversified portfolio of stocks.

In the short term the market is very risky. The market will go up and then go down so if you are only thinking of investing for a short period then this is not the best option. If you are nearing retirement age and now beginning to invest in stocks this is not a good option. The best option in these cases as a protection against inflation, rather than stocks, is to invest in stable investments such as bonds and other cash instruments. This offers more security than stocks in the short term.

So how long is considered short term? Many persons are under the misconception that short term means less than a year but this is in fact not so. In terms of stocks short term is considered to be five years or less and some persons will recommend more years rather than the minimum of five years. A good rule is that if you are going to need your funds in the next five years then stay away from stock investment. Another point to note is that unless you are an active trader then short term investments make no sense. If the funds being used are for retirement investment then being an active trader is also not recommended.

The average down time for some markets is a year but this has been seen to last much longer a well so though for a long term investor this downtime may seen to be a lifetime it will pass but if you are a short term investor you will lose a lot depending on the market fluctuations. Stock investment will offer many great opportunities but can be devastating for a short term investor. If you know that the funds you are investing will be required for use in a short time then choose investment options that are more secure and protected. It is true that you may get lucky and make a fortune but it is also true that the risks are high and that you can lose everything.

How To Choose A Uranium Stock

(category: Stock-Market, Word count: 929)
Share this article on: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp

Now that the uranium bull market has gone to a new level, a number of exploration stocks made spectacular percentage gains after the International Investment Conference held in San Francisco in late November 2005. We turned to Kevin Bambrough, Market Strategist, and Jean-Francoise Tardif, Portfolio Manager, at Sprott Asset Management for their advice on how to navigate through the more than 250 uranium exploration, development and producing companies available across the global investment landscape. Who better to ask than a fund that has invested around $175 million in uranium stocks the past few years, about 6.7 percent of more than $2.5 billion managed by Sprott Asset Management? The Sprott team has bet heavily on a nuclear energy renaissance, and early indications confirm very strong returns in their investments.

Before our taped telephone interview, Kevin Bambrough emailed a few comments, "We would like to make the point about some incredible gains that have been had in the uranium sector. The list is growing but not the quality so investors should use extreme caution. As the uranium price rises, and money pours into exploration, we can expect to see some sizeable discoveries coming down the road. It should be exciting times."

Prior to StockInterview.com's interviews with Mr. Bambrough and Mr. Tardif, they compiled a list of ten tips for investors studying uranium companies. The tips are listed below, followed by an extensive interview, first with Mr. Bambrough (in this installment) and a second installment with Mr. Bambrough and Mr. Tardif.

The Ten Tips Investors Should Know

1. One of the best indicators of a project's potential success could be past ownership. It's best to try to buy any mining stock early in the cycle. Try to pick up properties that were worked by majors during the last bull market but which eventually dropped during the lows of the bear market. During the last uranium boom of the 1970's, many majors decided to completely exit the uranium sector.

2. Study the value of ore body with regards to its value per tonne, or its recoverable metal. Estimate the "all in" costs and feel comfortable with what you are paying. Risks-to-reward doesn't favor pure exploration. Typically, we avoid pure exploration plays unless management is excellent, they have a large prospective land package, and the company is well financed.

3. Look for good, proven management, which has been successful in the past.

4. Look for solid shareholders. It is always nice to see that management has a large stake in the company. Often, this makes them value their paper more, and they will be less likely to engage in reckless stock issuance. If not management, I get comfort seeing that successful fund managers have large holdings. It is even better to see that a major company in a related industry has taken an interest in the company.

5. Look at the property's infrastructure. Find out about electricity and water costs required for exploration, development and production. Find out about roads, rail, trucking, access and proximity to a mill.

6. Look for hidden value in the company. We always consider the value of existing infrastructure. From time to time we have been able to buy companies where existing facilities, perhaps a mill or shafts more than justify the entire market cap of the company. Past drilling for uranium will save money. Some companies have properties with very expensive shafts and/or mills. There are also companies with large extensive databases like Energy Metals Corporation (TSX: EMC) and Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM). These databases of past drilling on various properties can be used to continue to acquire good prospects as well as sold in pieces. I would expect that they will also be able to use the data to farm in on other properties or sell other property owners valuable drill-hole data.

7. Buy emerging stories. It is great to find a company before it has any analyst coverage or even covered by letter writers.

8. Find out if the property is in a pro-mining environment. Ultimately, you need to mine. It's best to have a property in a location where government is pro-mining. We will still invest, though, as long as this factor is discounted in the stock. Some countries are so hungry for investment they will offer favorable tax rates and other incentives. Permitting can be costly and take a long time so this is very important.

9. Study the capital costs for the project and the currency in the country where the project is located. Typically, the lower the capital costs, the less risk in the project. The less a company risks, in time and money, to find out if the mine is economic, the greater its chance of success. Larger capital intensive projects usually take longer to bring on, and you could risk missing an important part of the cycle. I also like to consider currency moves and their possible impact. A strengthening local currency can drive up costs and destroy margins. A falling currency can dramatically improve the economics of the project

10. Funding can improve the story or outlook. Make your cash work. It's not really an option for a small investor but as an institution we love to invest in companies when we think our cash is going to make a huge difference. Examples include when Aflease (now SXR Uranium One - TSE: SXR) had cash problems and was being deeply discounted, or our recent Tournigan (TSX: TVC) funding to pay for confirmation drilling and exploration on the Jahodna uranium deposit in Slovakia.

Reload this page to get new content randomly.

More Categories

Time-Management | Loans | Credit | Weather | Finance | Weddings | Trucks-Suvs | Home-Family | Cars | Self-Improvement | Reference-Education | Insurance | Vehicles | Mortgage | Home-Improvement | Gardening | Society | Parenting | Debt-Consolidation | Womens-Issues | Relationships | Acne | Interior-Design | Nutrition | Fashion | Baby | Legal | Religion | Fishing | Clothing | Holidays | Product-Reviews | Personal-Finance | Auctions | Communications | Misc | Supplements | Marriage | Currency-Trading | Politics | Goal-Setting | Taxes | Ecommerce | Movie-Reviews | Recipes | Traffic-Generation | College | Cooking | Computer-Certification | Success | Motivation | Depression | Stress-Management | Site-Promotion | Outdoors | Home-Security | Book-Reviews | History | Entrepreneurs | Hair-Loss | Yoga | Consumer-Electronics | Stock-Market | Email-Marketing | Article-Writing | Ppc-Advertising | Science | K12-Education | Crafts | Environmental | Elderly-Care | Fitness-Equipment | Cruises | Coaching | Domains | Spirituality | Mens-Issues | Happiness | Leadership | Customer-Service | Inspirational | Diabetes | Attraction | Security | Copywriting | Language | Data-Recovery | Muscle-Building | Aviation | Motorcycles | Coffee | Landscaping | Homeschooling | Ebooks | Cardio | Psychology | Celebrities | Pregnancy | Ebay | Mesothelioma | Extreme | Ezine-Marketing | Digital-Products | Fundraising | Martial-Arts | Boating | Divorce | Book-Marketing | Commentary | Current-Events | Credit-Cards | Public-Speaking | Hunting | Debt | Financial | Coin-Collecting | Family-Budget | Meditation | Biking | Rss | Music-Reviews | Organizing | Breast-Cancer | Creativity | Spam | Podcasts | Google-Adsense | Forums | Ethics | Buying-Paintings | Gourmet | Auto-Sound-systems | After-School-Activities | Adsense | Dieting | Education | Dance | Cigars | Astronomy | Cats | Diamonds | Autoresponders | Disneyland | Carpet | Bbqs | Dental | Criminology | Craigslist | Atv | Excavation-Equipment | Buying-A-boat | Auto-Responders | Auto-Navigation-Systems | Autism-Articles | Atkins-Diet | Aspen-Nightlife | Fruit-Trees | Credit-Card-Debt | Creating-An-Online-Business | Breast-Feeding | Contact-Lenses | Computer-Games-systems | Colon-Cleanse | College-Scholarship | Golden-Retriever | Anger-Management | American-History | Bluetooth-Technology | Alternative-Energy | Closet-Organizers | Elliptical-Trainers | Electric-Cars | Black-History | Air-Purifiers | Diesel-Vs-Gasoline-Vehicles | Christmas-Shopping | Choosing-The-Right-Golf-Clubs | Dental-Assistant | Decorating-For-Christmas | Beach-Vacations | Cd-Duplication | Bathroom-Remodeling | Bargain-Hunting | Candle-Making | Backyard-Activities | Auto-Leasing | Skin-Cancer | Recreational-Vehicle | Mutual-Funds | Boats | Leasing | Innovation | Philosophy | Grief | Colon-Cancer | Prostate-Cancer | Dating-Women | Audio-Video-Streaming | Forex | Digital-Camera | Cell-Phone | Car-Stereo | Car-Rental | Running | Sociology | Multiple-Sclerosis | Leukemia | Dogs | Ovarian-Cancer